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We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of f

Commodity prices are one of the most important drivers of output fluctuations in developing countries. We show that a major channel through which commodity pric

This paper investigates the impact of commodity price shocks on financial sector fragility. Using a large sample of 71 commodity exporters among emerging and de

What causes a financial crisis? Can financial crises be anticipated or even avoided? What can be done to lessen their impact? Should governments and internation

The acclaimed New York Times bestselling history of financial crises Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing, a