The Use and Abuse of "real-time" Data in Economic Forecasting

The Use and Abuse of
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Total Pages : 44
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ISBN-10 : UCSD:31822028606929
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Rating : 4/5 (29 Downloads)

Book Synopsis The Use and Abuse of "real-time" Data in Economic Forecasting by : Evan F. Koenig

Download or read book The Use and Abuse of "real-time" Data in Economic Forecasting written by Evan F. Koenig and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We distinguish between three different ways of using real-time data to estimate forecasting equations and argue that the most frequently used approach should generally be avoided. The point is illustrated with a model that uses monthly observations of industrial production, employment, and retail sales to predict real GDP growth. When the model is estimated using our preferred method, its out-of-sample forecasting performance is clearly superior to that obtained using conventional estimation, and compares favorably with that of the Blue-Chip consensus.


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