Download or read book Comovements in National Stock Market Returns written by Anthony John Richards and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-04 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper is a response to the literature that tests for cointegration between national stock market indices. It argues that apparent findings of cointegration in other studies may often be due to the use of asymptotic, rather than small-sample, critical values. In fact, economic theory suggests that cointegration is unlikely to be observed in efficient markets. However, this paper finds some evidence for the long-horizon predictability of relative returns, and the existence of “winner-loser” reversals across 16 national equity markets. A conclusion is that national stock market indices include a common world component and two country-specific components, one permanent and one transitory.