Download or read book Navigating The Markets Amid Extreme Volatility written by Shazir Mucklai and published by Shazir Mucklai. This book was released on 2020-03-21 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Shazir Mucklai says, “The coronavirus outbreak ensured that the Year of the Rat didn’t get off to the most propitious start. Over 7,900 people dead so far, more than 190,000 infected and 40+ countries affected. Cities in lockdown, travel restrictions in place, plant closures mounting. Global trade, commerce, tourism, investment and supply chains in disarray.” In an interview, Mucklai said it’s important for us as a country to come together to foster and cultivate the resources during this pandemic, he continues, the stock market erased $6.9 trillion in shareholder wealth in 2008 and has only lost about $2.5 trillion since the crisis started in late February. Mucklai predicts the US Debt and equities markets can drop another 30% based on projections. Mucklai was the youngest writer for Forbes and now runs a public relations digital arbitrage boutique based out of Dallas and Los Angeles. Mucklai says, “Global Growth Rates To Take A Hit” Mucklai recalls “Today, China’s economy is much more deeply intertwined with the world’s economy—a 17% share of global GDP with trade accounting for 34% of domestic GDP—than it was during the 2003 SARS outbreak. At this time, no one knows how long it will take to control the virus or how widespread the epidemic will become. What we do know is that this will have negative economic repercussions. The recent behavior of the stock market would imply that the economic repercussions will be shallow and short-lived. Mucklai says, “The bond market, on the other hand, appears to have the opposite view, as bond yields have fallen precipitously since the virus reared its ugly head.” The most likely scenario is one of Gradual Abatement where cases remain concentrated in China in Q1 2020, before gradually being eliminated from March 2020. In this scenario, the global economy would grow by 3.1% in 2020 with China’s GDP growth slipping from pre-outbreak forecasts of 5.9% to 5.4%. The report also finds that in the worst case scenario or what it terms the Severe Pandemic scenario, where the outbreak intensifies and spreads worldwide before being brought under control by June-July, global GDP growth could dip to below 2%.