Download or read book Optimal Fiscal Adjustment under Uncertainty written by Rossen Rozenov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-17 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper offers a non-probabilistic framework for representation of uncertainty in the context of a simple linear-quadratic model of fiscal adjustment. Instead of treating model disturbances as random variables with known probability distributions, it is only assumed that they belong to some pre-specified compact set. Such an approach is appropriate when the decision maker does not have enough information to form probabilistic beliefs or when considerations for robustness are important. Solution of the model in the minimax sense when disturbance sets are ellipsoids is obtained and the application of the method is illustrated using the example of Portugal.